Oct 21, 2024

Get ready—software jobs are coming back. Recently, I've seen a lot more posts about software job openings on my LinkedIn feed compared to a few months ago. If you're looking for software job openings but can't find them on LinkedIn, just follow my account. You’ll see me "thumbs up" or repost some of the opportunities.

Interestingly, the increase in software job openings started after the Fed announced a 0.5% interest rate cut in late September. It felt like software companies read the Fed's announcement and immediately started hiring again.

I've looked at a few graphs from Federal Reserve and Department of Labor Statistics, and it appears that the number of software job openings—and overall job openings—have been closely following the growth of US dollar money supply and change in interest rates.

Here is a graph of non-farm job openings in the U.S. since 2020. Notice the substantial hiring from 2020-2021, with job openings peaking in early 2022, followed by significant layoffs and reductions:

US Job Openings

Source: Department of Labor Statistics Job Opening Data

The curve of software job openings is similar to the curve of overall non-farm job openings in the U.S.:

Federal Reserve Software Job Opening Data

Here is a graph of U.S. money supply, i.e. how much US dollar the Federal Reserve Banks prints. If you zoom in on the period from early 2020 to the present, you'll notice that the trend in money supply leads the trend in job openings. The money printing surged in early 2020 (during the pandemic), peaked in December 2021, and has mostly trended downward since then. Note software job openings started to decline a few months in early 2022 after the money supply began decreasing:

Monetary Base

Source: US Monetary Base

Finally, here is a graph of the Fed funds rate, the interest rate directly controlled by the Federal Reserve. If you zoom in on the same period (early 2020 to now), you'll see that it is inversely related to software job openings:

Fed Funds Rate

Source: Federal Funds Effective Rate

Feel free to message me if you need coaching on resume preparation or getting ready for software interviews.

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